The Central Asian market, often overlooked in global trade discussions, plays a significant role in the tanker trailer industry. This blog post delves into the current and projected demand for tanker trailers in Central Asia, analyzing the trends and factors influencing this market.
Current Market Overview
Central Asia, with its vast oil reserves, is a critical player in the global oil supply chain. The region's oil supply is expected to be influenced by the dynamics of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil supply from OPEC is forecasted to decrease slightly from 27.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2023 to 27.0 mbpd in both 2024 and 2025. This reduction could have implications for the tanker trailer market in Central Asia, as it may lead to a decrease in the demand for transportation of oil.
Refinery Runs and Demand Drivers
The IEA also predicts an increase in refinery runs, particularly in Asia/Oceania and Africa, which are expected to expand by 0.8 mbpd and 1.0 mbpd respectively in 2024 and 2025. This increase in refinery activity could drive demand for tanker trailers in Central Asia, as more oil will need to be transported to these refineries. The opening of new refineries, such as the Yulong refinery in China and the Dangote refinery in Nigeria, will contribute to this rise in refinery runs.
Impact of Electric Vehicles and Petrochemicals
The demand for petrochemicals is expected to drive nearly 40% of the global oil and products demand expansion, with an increase of 1.1 and 1.2 mbpd in 2024 and 2025 respectively. This growth in petrochemical demand could lead to an increased need for tanker trailers capable of transporting these products in Central Asia. On the other hand, the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to displace oil demand, which may impact the tanker trailer market negatively. EVs are estimated to have displaced oil demand of 0.8 mbpd in 2023, and this could increase to between 5.4 mbpd and 8.2 mbpd by 2030.
Regional Demand and Trade Restrictions
While global demand growth is forecasted at only 1.0% in 2024 and 0.9% in 2025, demand in Asia is expected to grow at a higher rate of 2.6% and 2.1% respectively in the same years. This suggests that despite a global slowdown, the Central Asian market may still experience robust demand for tanker trailers. Trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions, such as those in the Middle East, have driven demand higher for tanker trailers, as they can affect shipping routes and the need for alternative transportation methods.
Fleet Growth and New Ship Contracts
The crude tanker fleet's capacity is estimated to grow by 0.5% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025. This growth, along with a renewed interest in contracting new ships, indicates a positive outlook for the tanker trailer market. The order book has increased by 160%, reaching 34.3 million deadweight tonnes, which is 7.4% of the trading fleet. However, most of these ships will only be delivered in 2026 and beyond, meaning that the immediate impact on the market will be limited.
The Central Asian market for tanker trailers is influenced by a complex interplay of global oil supply, refinery runs, petrochemical demand, and the rise of electric vehicles. While there are challenges, such as the potential displacement of oil demand by EVs, there are also significant opportunities driven by increased refinery activity and trade restrictions. As the market evolves, it is crucial for stakeholders in Central Asia to adapt to these changes and position themselves to meet the region's tanker trailer needs effectively.